Hong KongversusMalaysia

24 Sept 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Malaysia won by 8 wickets

Hong Kong20.0 overs81/9 Malaysia12.0 overs84/2 Korogi Sports Park ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

61%Hong Kong39%Malaysia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Malaysia (1,595 vs 1,549 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Hong Kong won 6 and Malaysia won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 60%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · Malaysia is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 0% to 61% during the match (Malaysia: 39% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.4: Syed Aziz to Anshuman Rath, Anshuman Rath out. Malaysia up from 39% to 51%.
5.2: Pavandeep Singh to Yasim Murtaza, Yasim Murtaza out. Malaysia up from 61% to 75%.
5.5: Pavandeep Singh to Shahid Wasif, Shahid Wasif out. Malaysia up from 75% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong81/9 Malaysia84/2

Innings 1

Hong Kong

81/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Nizakat Khancaught · Syed Aziz · Pavandeep Singh 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Syed Aziz · b Pavandeep Singh	19	14	1	1	135.71
Anshuman Rathbowled · Syed Aziz 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Syed Aziz	0	3	0	0	0.00
Babar Hayatcaught · Virandeep Singh · Muhammad Wafiq 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Virandeep Singh · b Muhammad Wafiq	0	3	0	0	0.00
S Mathurcaught · Sharvin Muniandy · Virandeep Singh 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sharvin Muniandy · b Virandeep Singh	29	39	3	0	74.36
Yasim Murtazacaught · Muhammad Akram · Pavandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Muhammad Akram · b Pavandeep Singh	0	1	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Syed Aziz0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	1	3.67	3
Muhammad Wafiq0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	10	1	10.00	1
Pavandeep Singh1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	3	2.75	0
Virandeep Singh1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	23	1	5.75	0
Vijay Unni1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	0	2.75	0
Muhammad Amir0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	12	3	3.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	10	12/2
3	8	20/2
4	2	22/2
5	9	31/2
6	0	31/5
7	0	31/5
8	6	37/5
9	7	44/5
10	3	47/5
11	2	49/5
12	1	50/6
13	0	50/6
14	3	53/7
15	2	55/7
16	3	58/8
17	7	65/8
18	6	71/8
19	7	78/9
20	3	81/9

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