Turks and Caicos IslandversusMexico

18 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Mexico won by 8 wickets

Turks and Caicos Island20.0 overs99/10 Mexico14.0 overs100/2 Clayton Panama, Panama City ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Mexico more likely to win

35%Turks and Caicos Island65%Mexico

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Mexico rate stronger than Turks and Caicos Island (1,285 vs 1,181 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Turks and Caicos Island started on 35%; Turks and Caicos Island batted first.

Turks and Caicos Island’s chance of winning (%) · Mexico is the rest

Turks and Caicos Island's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (Mexico: 57% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: Pratik Singh Bais to G Bruno, G Bruno out. Mexico up from 57% to 67%.
2.3: Pratik Singh Bais to M Smith, M Smith out. Mexico up from 66% to 75%.
6.1: D Panda to S Hunter, S Hunter out. Mexico up from 79% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Turks and Caicos Island99/10 Mexico100/2

Innings 1