ArgentinaversusSuriname

9 Mar 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Argentina won by 15 runs

Argentina20.0 overs129/9 Suriname20.0 overs114/8 Jimmy Powell Oval, Cayman Islands ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Argentina more likely to win

79%Argentina21%Suriname

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Argentina rate stronger than Suriname (1,452 vs 1,266 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Argentina won 1 and Suriname won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Argentina started on 78%; Argentina batted first.

Argentina’s chance of winning (%) · Suriname is the rest

Argentina's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Suriname: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.5: JP Cabrera to S Bharratt, S Bharratt out. Argentina up from 45% to 57%.
2nd inns 6.5: A Husain to V Shaw, V Shaw out. Argentina up from 53% to 67%.
2nd inns 12.2: A Kirschbaum to G Singh, G Singh out. Argentina up from 52% to 66%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Argentina129/9 Suriname114/8

Innings 1

Argentina

129/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Argentina batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
P Baronbowled · YP Dayal 8 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b YP Dayal	73	52	8	1	140.38
Alejandro Fergusonrun out · SA Amirullah, J Perry · Gavin Singh 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · SA Amirullah, J Perry	6	7	1	0	85.71
A Kirschbaumcaught · V Hirlal · XSD Smith 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · V Hirlal · b XSD Smith	9	13	1	0	69.23
T Rossirun out · SA Amirullah · Arun Gokoel 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · SA Amirullah	1	2	0	0	50.00
AAP Riverocaught · J Perry · YP Dayal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Perry · b YP Dayal	12

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Troy Dudnath0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	19	0	9.50	2
Gavin Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	0	9.67	0
KN Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	1	7.00	0
Arun Gokoel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	0	4.25	1
XSD Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
YP Dayal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	4	4.75	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	7	13/0
3	13	26/0
4	2	28/1
5	9	37/1
6	20	57/1
7	4	61/1
8	10	71/1
9	1	72/1
10	4	76/2
11	8	84/3
12	7	91/3
13	4	95/3
14	3	98/3
15	4	102/3
16	3	105/5
17	8	113/6
18	2	115/8
19	4	119/8
20	10	129/9

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