EnglandversusIndia

9 Jul 2025 · T20

Old Trafford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 6 wickets

England20.0 overs126/7 India17.0 overs127/4 Old Trafford ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

69%England31%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than India (1,728 vs 1,660 on our results rating)
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 6 and India won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 66%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

England's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (India: 26% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: N Shree Charani to DN Wyatt, DN Wyatt out. India up from 26% to 33%.
5.2: DB Sharma to SIR Dunkley, SIR Dunkley out. India up from 33% to 40%.
11.1: N Shree Charani to A Capsey, A Capsey out. India up from 38% to 45%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England126/7 India127/4

Innings 1

England

126/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sophia Dunkleycaught · Radha Yadav · Deepti Sharma 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Radha Yadav · b Deepti Sharma	22	19	2	1	115.79
Danielle Wyattcaught · Arundhati Reddy · Shree Charani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Arundhati Reddy · b Shree Charani	5	7	0	0	71.43
Alice Capseylbw · Shree Charani 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Shree Charani	18	21	2	0	85.71
Tammy Beaumontcaught · Arundhati Reddy · Radha Yadav3 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Amanjot Kaur0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	0
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	0
Shree Charani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	0
Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	0	5.33	1
Radha Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	2	3.75	0
Sneh Rana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	12	0	12.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	4	10/0
3	11	21/1
4	2	23/1
5	10	33/1
6	5	38/2
7	4	42/2
8	12	54/2
9	4	58/2
10	10	68/2
11	2	70/3
12	5	75/4
13	6	81/4
14	8	89/4
15	5	94/5
16	4	98/5
17	3	101/7
18	4	105/7
19	5	110/7
20	16	126/7

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