South AfricaversusIndia

22 Feb 2026 · T20

Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 76 runs

South Africa20.0 overs187/7 India18.5 overs111/10 Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

11%South Africa89%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,886 vs 1,645 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and South Africa won 2
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 10%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 3% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.3: M Jansen to Abhishek Sharma, Abhishek Sharma out. South Africa up from 41% to 59%.
2nd inns 7.2: C Bosch to Washington Sundar, Washington Sundar out. South Africa up from 59% to 77%.
2nd inns 9.1: C Bosch to SA Yadav, SA Yadav out. South Africa up from 81% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa187/7 India111/10

Innings 1

South Africa

187/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Aiden Markramcaught · Hardik Pandya · Arshdeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Hardik Pandya · b Arshdeep Singh	4	7	0	0	57.14
Quinton de Kockbowled · Jasprit Bumrah 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah	6	7	1	0	85.71
Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Shivam Dube · Jasprit Bumrah 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Shivam Dube · b Jasprit Bumrah	7	7	0	1	100.00
Dewald Breviscaught · Abhishek Sharma · Shivam Dube 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Abhishek Sharma · b Shivam Dube

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	1	0
Jasprit Bumrah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	3	3.75	0	0
Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	47	1	11.75	3	0
Washington Sundar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	0	0
Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	45	0	11.25	0	1
Shivam Dube0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	32	1	16.00	2	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	6	10/1
3	9	19/2
4	1	20/3
5	11	31/3
6	10	41/3
7	11	52/3
8	4	56/3
9	17	73/3
10	11	84/3
11	15	99/3
12	12	111/3
13	17	128/4
14	6	134/4
15	10	144/4
16	8	152/5
17	5	157/5
18	7	164/6
19	3	167/7
20	20	187/7

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