NamibiaversusOman

4 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Oman won by 8 wickets

Namibia20.0 overs101/8 Oman11.1 overs104/2 Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 1) ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Oman more likely to win

39%Namibia61%Oman

Why

Oman are playing at home in Oman
On results in T20 internationals so far, Oman rate stronger than Namibia (1,612 vs 1,577 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 36%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Oman is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 0% to 37% during the match (Oman: 63% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.1: Kaleemullah to MB Kruger, MB Kruger out. Oman up from 68% to 76%.
7.4: Mohammad Nadeem to JP Kotze, JP Kotze out. Oman up from 73% to 78%.
9.1: Aqib Ilyas to MG Erasmus, MG Erasmus out. Oman up from 78% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia101/8 Oman104/2

Innings 1

Namibia

101/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Jean-Pierre Kotzebowled · Mohammad Nadeem 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mohammad Nadeem	18	23	2	0	78.26
Malan Krugercaught · Naseem Khushi · Kaleemullah 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Naseem Khushi · b Kaleemullah	2	10	0	0	20.00
Gerhard Erasmuscaught and bowled · Aaqib Ilyas 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Aaqib Ilyas	15	17	1	0	88.24
Jan Frylinckcaught · Ayan Khan · Fiaz Bhutt 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ayan Khan · b Fiaz Bhutt	22	28	2	0	78.57
Zane Greencaught and bowled · Aaqib Ilyas 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Aaqib Ilyas

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kaleemullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	0
Fiaz Bhutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	0
Mohammad Nadeem0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	2	5.33	1
Rafiullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	0	6.00	0
Aaqib Ilyas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	2	3.25	1
Ayan Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	5	0	5.00	0
Samay Shrivastava0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	1	4.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	1	3/0
3	2	5/1
4	5	10/1
5	7	17/1
6	9	26/1
7	5	31/1
8	3	34/2
9	7	41/2
10	3	44/3
11	5	49/3
12	2	51/4
13	4	55/5
14	1	56/5
15	5	61/5
16	7	68/5
17	7	75/5
18	15	90/5
19	4	94/6
20	7	101/8

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