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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024/25 · Men
29 Oct 2024 · ODI
Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 64%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 63% during the match (Nepal: 37% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Tearbowled · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Karan KC | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Andrew Umeedbowled · Sompal Kami3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sompal Kami | 14 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 73.68 |
| Brandon McMullenlbw · Sandeep Lamichhane 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 16 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 44.44 |
| Richie Berringtoncaught · Aarif Sheikh · Gulsan Jha 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aarif Sheikh · b Gulsan Jha | 19 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 42.22 |
 Michael Jonescaught · Rohit Kumar · Aarif Sheikh2 fours · 0 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Rohit Kumar · b Aarif Sheikh |
| 19 |
| 29 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 65.52 |
| Matty Crosslbw · Sandeep Lamichhane 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 15 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 44.12 |
|---|
| Michael Leasklbw · Karan KC 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Karan KC | 14 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 82.35 |
|---|
 Mark Wattbowled · Sompal Kami0 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Sompal Kami | 34 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 85.00 |
|---|
| Jack Jarviscaught · Aasif Sheikh · Gulsan Jha 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Gulsan Jha | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Brad Whealcaught · Aarif Sheikh · Sandeep Lamichhane1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aarif Sheikh · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 9 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 90.00 |
|---|
| Brad Currienot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karan KC1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 2.89 | 2 | 0 |
 Sompal Kami1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 1 | 32 | 2 | 3.69 | 2 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 45 | 3 | 4.50 | 6 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Aarif Sheikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Charlie Tear, 0.5) · 2-26 (Andrew Umeed, 8.0) · 3-34 (Brandon McMullen, 11.5) · 4-70 (Michael Jones, 21.4) · 5-70 (Richie Berrington, 22.4) · 6-88 (Michael Leask, 26.2) · 7-113 (Matty Cross, 35.2) · 8-114 (Jack Jarvis, 37.0) · 9-136 (Brad Wheal, 39.1) · 10-154 (Mark Watt, 41.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 6/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 13/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 17/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 26/2 |
| 9 | 0 | 26/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 27/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 29/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 35/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 38/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 46/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 50/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 51/3 |
| 17 | 6 | 57/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 60/3 |
| 19 | 1 | 61/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 64/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 66/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 70/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 71/5 |
| 24 | 4 | 75/5 |
| 25 | 6 | 81/5 |
| 26 | 7 | 88/5 |
| 27 | 3 | 91/6 |
| 28 | 2 | 93/6 |
| 29 | 2 | 95/6 |
| 30 | 4 | 99/6 |
| 31 | 2 | 101/6 |
| 32 | 3 | 104/6 |
| 33 | 2 | 106/6 |
| 34 | 3 | 109/6 |
| 35 | 4 | 113/6 |
| 36 | 0 | 113/7 |
| 37 | 1 | 114/8 |
| 38 | 13 | 127/8 |
| 39 | 9 | 136/8 |
| 40 | 1 | 137/9 |
| 41 | 5 | 142/9 |
| 42 | 12 | 154/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brad Wheal: Dave Morton · Public domain
Andrew Umeed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
