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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka tour of Zimbabwe · 2025 · Men
6 Sept 2025 · T20
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 60%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 61% during the match (Zimbabwe: 39% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Tony Munyonga · Brad Evans 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tony Munyonga · b Brad Evans | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Richard Ngarava · Blessing Muzarabani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Richard Ngarava · b Blessing Muzarabani | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Kamil Misharabowled · Brad Evans 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brad Evans | 20 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Nuwanidu Fernandocaught · Sikandar Raza · Blessing Muzarabani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sikandar Raza · b Blessing Muzarabani | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Charith Asalankabowled · Sikandar Raza 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sikandar Raza | 18 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 78.26 |
| Kamindu Mendislbw · Sikandar Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| lbw · b Sikandar Raza |
| 0 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Dasun Shanakacaught · Tinotenda Maposa · Sean Williams 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tinotenda Maposa · b Sean Williams | 13 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 61.90 |
|---|
| Dushan Hemantharun out · Tadiwanashe Marumani, Tinotenda Maposa · Brad Evans 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Tadiwanashe Marumani, Tinotenda Maposa | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Dushmantha Chameeralbw · Sikandar Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sikandar Raza | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanacaught · Sikandar Raza · Brad Evans 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sikandar Raza · b Brad Evans | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Binura Fernandonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Evans0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.4 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 5.63 | 0 | 1 |
 Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Tinotenda Maposa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Sean Williams0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Kusal Mendis, 1.1) · 2-17 (Pathum Nissanka, 3.3) · 3-24 (Nuwanidu Fernando, 4.5) · 4-37 (Kamil Mishara, 5.4) · 5-38 (Kamindu Mendis, 6.5) · 6-64 (Dasun Shanaka, 13.0) · 7-66 (Charith Asalanka, 13.3) · 8-66 (Dushmantha Chameera, 13.5) · 9-79 (Dushan Hemantha, 17.1) · 10-80 (Mahesh Theekshana, 17.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 19/2 |
| 5 | 9 | 28/3 |
| 6 | 9 | 37/4 |
| 7 | 1 | 38/5 |
| 8 | 3 | 41/5 |
| 9 | 5 | 46/5 |
| 10 | 4 | 50/5 |
| 11 | 7 | 57/5 |
| 12 | 3 | 60/5 |
| 13 | 4 | 64/6 |
| 14 | 2 | 66/8 |
| 15 | 3 | 69/8 |
| 16 | 5 | 74/8 |
| 17 | 4 | 78/8 |
| 18 | 2 | 80/10 |
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Williams: Larry D. Moore · CC BY 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
