Royal Challengers BangaloreversusMumbai Indians

15 Mar 2024 · T20

Arun Jaitley Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bangalore won by 5 runs

Royal Challengers Bangalore20.0 overs135/6 Mumbai Indians20.0 overs130/6 Arun Jaitley Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bangalore started on 39%; Royal Challengers Bangalore batted first.

Royal Challengers Bangalore’s chance of winning (%) · Mumbai Indians is the rest

Royal Challengers Bangalore's chances ranged from 6% to 86% during the match (Mumbai Indians: 14% to 94%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.5: S Molineux to S Sajana, S Sajana out. Royal Challengers Bangalore up from 27% to 49%.
2nd inns 19.4: S Asha to P Vastrakar, P Vastrakar out. Royal Challengers Bangalore up from 65% to 82%.
2nd inns 19.6: S Asha to AC Kerr, 1 run to AC Kerr. Royal Challengers Bangalore up from 86% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bangalore135/6 Mumbai Indians130/6

Innings 1