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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
10 Feb 2026 · T20
Arun Jaitley Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 50%; Namibia batted first.
Namibia's chances ranged from 0% to 51% during the match (Netherlands: 50% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louren Steenkampstumped · Scott Edwards · Aryan Dutt 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Scott Edwards · b Aryan Dutt | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Jan Frylinckcaught · Scott Edwards · Logan van Beek 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Scott Edwards · b Logan van Beek | 30 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 115.38 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Roelof van der Merwe · Logan van Beek 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Roelof van der Merwe · b Logan van Beek | 42 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 110.53 |
| Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Aryan Dutt · Bas de Leede 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aryan Dutt · b Bas de Leede | 18 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 200.00 |
| JJ Smitbowled · Bas de Leede 1 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Bas de Leede | 22 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 146.67 |
| Zane Greencaught · Michael Levitt · Fred Klaassen 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Levitt · b Fred Klaassen | 9 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 90.00 |
|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmannrun out · Bas de Leede · Bas de Leede 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Bas de Leede | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 112.50 |
|---|
| DO Leichernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| WP Myburghrun out · Scott Edwards, Logan van Beek · Fred Klaassen 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Scott Edwards, Logan van Beek | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan van Beek0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 4.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Fred Klaassen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 8.33 | 2 | 0 |
 Colin Ackermann0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Zach Lion-Cachet0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 1 |
 Timm van der Gugten0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 10.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Bas de Leede0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 6.67 | 2 | 0 |
 Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (Louren Steenkamp, 2.2) · 2-60 (Jan Frylinck, 9.1) · 3-95 (Gerhard Erasmus, 12.2) · 4-107 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 14.3) · 5-127 (JJ Smit, 16.3) · 6-137 (Zane Green, 18.0) · 7-145 (Ruben Trumpelmann, 18.4) · 8-156 (WP Myburgh, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 11 | 24/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 29/1 |
| 6 | 11 | 40/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 46/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 51/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 60/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 65/2 |
| 11 | 13 | 78/2 |
| 12 | 16 | 94/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 99/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 105/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 109/4 |
| 16 | 16 | 125/4 |
| 17 | 5 | 130/5 |
| 18 | 7 | 137/6 |
| 19 | 11 | 148/7 |
| 20 | 8 | 156/8 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Colin Ackermann: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Timm van der Gugten: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
