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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A · 2026 · Men
17 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Guernsey more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Malta started on 31%; Malta batted first.
Malta's chances ranged from 0% to 36% during the match (Guernsey: 64% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mehboob Alicaught · Matthew Stokes · M Dale-Bradley 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Matthew Stokes · b M Dale-Bradley | 26 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Zeeshan Khanstumped · Isaac Damarell · A Martel 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Isaac Damarell · b A Martel | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| P Pushparajancaught · Isaac Damarell · E Robinson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Isaac Damarell · b E Robinson | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Flynn Zahracaught · M Dale-Bradley · E Robinson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Dale-Bradley · b E Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jaspal Singhcaught · Ben Ferbrache · M Dale-Bradley 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Ferbrache · b M Dale-Bradley | 6 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 31.58 |
| Mohammed Qasimcaught · Oliver Nightingale · Josh Butler 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Oliver Nightingale · b Josh Butler |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| SB Patelcaught · Tom Nightingale · A Martel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Nightingale · b A Martel | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Imran Ameercaught · Lucas Barker · M Dale-Bradley 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lucas Barker · b M Dale-Bradley | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Muhammad Ajmalnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 17* | 23 | 1 | 0 | 73.91 |
|---|
| Ajin Somancaught · Matthew Stokes · M Dale-Bradley 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Matthew Stokes · b M Dale-Bradley | 8 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Jaswinder Singhcaught · Isaac Damarell · Tom Nightingale 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Isaac Damarell · b Tom Nightingale | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Martel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
| LT Bichard0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 1 |
| E Robinson0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 7.00 | 4 | 1 |
| Matthew Stokes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| M Dale-Bradley1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 2.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Butler0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Tom Nightingale0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-15 (Zeeshan Khan, 2.5) · 2-22 (P Pushparajan, 4.1) · 3-22 (Flynn Zahra, 4.2) · 4-36 (Mehboob Ali, 6.4) · 5-39 (Mohammed Qasim, 7.5) · 6-39 (SB Patel, 9.2) · 7-43 (Jaspal Singh, 10.1) · 8-46 (Imran Ameer, 11.0) · 9-60 (Ajin Soman, 15.0) · 10-74 (Jaswinder Singh, 18.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 22/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 29/3 |
| 6 | 6 | 35/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 38/4 |
| 8 | 1 | 39/5 |
| 9 | 0 | 39/5 |
| 10 | 4 | 43/6 |
| 11 | 3 | 46/8 |
| 12 | 3 | 49/8 |
| 13 | 2 | 51/8 |
| 14 | 6 | 57/8 |
| 15 | 3 | 60/9 |
| 16 | 4 | 64/9 |
| 17 | 2 | 66/9 |
| 18 | 8 | 74/9 |
| 19 | 0 | 74/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.