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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Europe Division 1 Qualifier · 2025 · Women
20 Aug 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Germany started on 21%; Germany batted first.
Germany's chances ranged from 0% to 23% during the match (Ireland: 77% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Hornero-Garcialbw · Orla Prendergast 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Orla Prendergast | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Karthika Vijayaraghavanbowled · Ava Canning 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ava Canning | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 7.69 |
| S Kolcharambowled · Ava Canning 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ava Canning | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 58.33 |
| Christina Goughcaught · Jane Maguire · Laura Delany 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jane Maguire · b Laura Delany | 28 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 71.79 |
| A Kanukuntlalbw · Cara Murray 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Cara Murray | 6 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
| lbw · b Arlene Kelly |
| 6 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| N Kingsleycaught · Arlene Kelly · Laura Delany 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arlene Kelly · b Laura Delany | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| V Stollebowled · Laura Delany 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Laura Delany | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| A Kohlirun out · Amy Hunter, Cara Murray · Arlene Kelly 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Amy Hunter, Cara Murray | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| I Edwardsnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Ashwini Balajibowled · Laura Delany 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Laura Delany | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Ava Canning1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Jane Maguire0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| LA McBride0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Cara Murray0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Arlene Kelly0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Laura Delany0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 3.86 | 0 | 0 |
| Leah Paul0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (W Hornero-Garcia, 0.4) · 2-11 (S Kolcharam, 3.2) · 3-17 (Karthika Vijayaraghavan, 5.5) · 4-38 (A Kanukuntla, 11.5) · 5-48 (Rameesha Shahid, 13.4) · 6-49 (N Kingsley, 14.2) · 7-49 (V Stolle, 14.4) · 8-54 (A Kohli, 15.2) · 9-62 (Christina Gough, 18.1) · 10-62 (Ashwini Balaji, 18.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 14/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 17/2 |
| 6 | 0 | 17/3 |
| 7 | 2 | 19/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 20/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 21/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 27/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 30/3 |
| 12 | 8 | 38/4 |
| 13 | 7 | 45/4 |
| 14 | 4 | 49/5 |
| 15 | 3 | 52/7 |
| 16 | 3 | 55/8 |
| 17 | 6 | 61/8 |
| 18 | 1 | 62/8 |
| 19 | 0 | 62/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.