Birmingham BearsversusYorkshire

13 Jun 2025 · T20

Headingley · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Birmingham Bears won by 32 runs

Birmingham Bears20.0 overs205/8 Yorkshire20.0 overs173/5 Headingley ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 53%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Yorkshire is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Yorkshire: 0% to 60%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.5: DR Briggs to DJ Malan, DJ Malan out. Birmingham Bears up from 55% to 68%.
2nd inns 15.6: DR Briggs to W Sutherland, six by W Sutherland. Yorkshire up from 22% to 39%.
2nd inns 16.2: DR Mousley to W Sutherland, W Sutherland out. Birmingham Bears up from 64% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Birmingham Bears205/8 Yorkshire173/5

Innings 1