IndiaversusSouth Africa

India more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,802 vs 1,597 on our results rating)
• South Africa are playing at home in South Africa
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 6 and South Africa won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

India started on 74%; India batted first.

India's chances ranged from 60% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 40%).

Biggest swings

1. 0.2: M Jansen to SV Samson, SV Samson out. South Africa up from 26% to 40%.
2. 0.5: M Jansen to Tilak Varma, six by Tilak Varma. India up from 64% to 70%.
3. 1.4: G Coetzee to Abhishek Sharma, six by Abhishek Sharma. India up from 73% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.