PakistanversusIreland

10 May 2024 · T20

Clontarf Cricket Club Ground, Dublin · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Ireland won by 5 wickets

Pakistan20.0 overs182/6 Ireland19.5 overs183/5 Clontarf Cricket Club Ground, Dublin ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

54%Pakistan46%Ireland

Why

Ireland are playing at home in Ireland
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 1 and Ireland won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than Ireland (1,537 vs 1,509 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 51%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Ireland is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 7% to 82% during the match (Ireland: 18% to 93%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: Naseem Shah to GJ Delany, four by GJ Delany. Ireland up from 62% to 85%.
2nd inns 18.4: Shaheen Shah Afridi to A Balbirnie, A Balbirnie out. Pakistan up from 29% to 51%.
2nd inns 19.4: Abbas Afridi to C Campher, four by C Campher. Ireland up from 70% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan182/6 Ireland183/5

Innings 1

Pakistan

182/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Saim Ayubcaught · Curtis Campher · Gareth Delany 4 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Curtis Campher · b Gareth Delany	45	29	4	3	155.17
Mohammad Rizwanrun out · Harry Tector · Barry McCarthy 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Harry Tector	1	4	0	0	25.00
Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Mark Adair · Craig Young 8 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Mark Adair · b Craig Young	57	43	8	1	132.56
Fakhar Zamancaught · Barry McCarthy · Mark Adair 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Barry McCarthy · b Mark Adair

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mark Adair0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	1
Barry McCarthy0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	0	9.75	2
Craig Young0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	0
Curtis Campher0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	30	0	10.00	2
Ben White0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	0	10.67	0
Gareth Delany0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	1	5.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	8	11/1
3	5	16/1
4	5	21/1
5	8	29/1
6	9	38/1
7	10	48/1
8	10	58/1
9	8	66/1
10	10	76/1
11	15	91/1
12	1	92/2
13	13	105/2
14	8	113/2
15	3	116/4
16	14	130/5
17	8	138/5
18	13	151/6
19	12	163/6
20	19	182/6

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