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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
10 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Argentina more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Panama started on 41%; Panama batted first.
Panama's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (Argentina: 53% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YI Kachhaliacaught · AAP Rivero · Santiago Duggan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AAP Rivero · b Santiago Duggan | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 88.89 |
| Mahmud Jasatrun out · Guido Angeletti, Santiago Iturbe · Hernán Fennell 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Guido Angeletti, Santiago Iturbe | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
| A Natubhai Ahircaught · B Angeltti · Hernán Fennell 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Angeltti · b Hernán Fennell | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Yusuf Ebrahimbowled · Guido Angeletti 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Guido Angeletti | 12 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 70.59 |
| Breeze Ahircaught · Alejandro Ferguson · A Kirschbaum 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alejandro Ferguson · b A Kirschbaum | 8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Irfan Hafejeebowled · Lucas Rossi 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lucas Rossi | 19 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 79.17 |
|---|
| RDB Ahircaught · Santiago Iturbe · Hernán Fennell 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Santiago Iturbe · b Hernán Fennell | 18 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 81.82 |
|---|
| Khandubhai Ahirlbw · AAP Rivero 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b AAP Rivero | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| P Suman Bhai Ahirrun out · AAP Rivero · AAP Rivero 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · AAP Rivero | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| AM Patelbowled · AAP Rivero 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b AAP Rivero | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| DK Dahyabhai Ahirnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Kirschbaum0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 2 | 0 |
 Hernán Fennell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 3.47 | 2 | 0 |
| Santiago Duggan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Guido Angeletti0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Lucas Rossi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| AAP Rivero0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-16 (YI Kachhalia, 3.0) · 2-19 (A Natubhai Ahir, 3.4) · 3-20 (Mahmud Jasat, 3.5) · 4-41 (Breeze Ahir, 8.5) · 5-48 (Yusuf Ebrahim, 10.0) · 6-77 (Irfan Hafejee, 15.5) · 7-78 (Khandubhai Ahir, 16.2) · 8-80 (P Suman Bhai Ahir, 16.5) · 9-90 (AM Patel, 18.3) · 10-92 (RDB Ahir, 19.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 20/3 |
| 5 | 2 | 22/3 |
| 6 | 3 | 25/3 |
| 7 | 4 | 29/3 |
| 8 | 9 | 38/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 45/4 |
| 10 | 3 | 48/5 |
| 11 | 2 | 50/5 |
| 12 | 3 | 53/5 |
| 13 | 8 | 61/5 |
| 14 | 3 | 64/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 68/5 |
| 16 | 10 | 78/6 |
| 17 | 2 | 80/8 |
| 18 | 9 | 89/8 |
| 19 | 3 | 92/9 |
| 20 | 0 | 92/10 |
Hernán Fennell: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alejandro Ferguson: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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