Comilla VictoriansversusKhulna Tigers

7 Feb 2024 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Comilla Victorians won by 34 runs

Comilla Victorians20.0 overs149/7 Khulna Tigers18.5 overs115/10 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Comilla Victorians started on 57%; Comilla Victorians batted first.

Comilla Victorians’s chance of winning (%) · Khulna Tigers is the rest

Comilla Victorians's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Khulna Tigers: 0% to 61%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.3: WG Jacks to Afif Hossain, Afif Hossain out. Comilla Victorians up from 52% to 66%.
2nd inns 5.6: Mustafizur Rahman to Akbar Ali, Akbar Ali out. Comilla Victorians up from 67% to 79%.
2nd inns 8.4: Aamer Jamal to E Lewis, E Lewis out. Comilla Victorians up from 85% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Comilla Victorians149/7 Khulna Tigers115/10

Innings 1