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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
15 Feb 2026 · T20
MA Chidambaram Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 57%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 59%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monank Patelcaught · JJ Smit · WP Myburgh 3 fours · 3 sixes | caught · JJ Smit · b WP Myburgh | 52 | 30 | 3 | 3 | 173.33 |
| Shayan Jahangircaught · JJ Smit · WP Myburgh 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · JJ Smit · b WP Myburgh | 22 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 122.22 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallacaught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · Gerhard Erasmus 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · b Gerhard Erasmus | 17 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 94.44 |
| Sanjay Krishnamurthinot out 4 fours · 6 sixes | not out | 68* | 33 | 4 | 6 | 206.06 |
| Milind Kumarcaught · JJ Smit · Gerhard Erasmus 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · JJ Smit · b Gerhard Erasmus | 28 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 140.00 |
 Shubham Ranjanenot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 13.00 | 3 | 1 |
| JJ Smit0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 14.33 | 0 | 0 |
| M Heingo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scholtz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
| WP Myburgh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-68 (Shayan Jahangir, 6.5) · 2-89 (Monank Patel, 10.2) · 3-103 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 11.4) · 4-190 (Milind Kumar, 19.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 30/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 35/0 |
| 5 | 11 | 46/0 |
| 6 | 19 | 65/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 69/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 75/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 84/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 88/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 92/2 |
| 12 | 12 | 104/3 |
| 13 | 7 | 111/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 116/3 |
| 15 | 20 | 136/3 |
| 16 | 13 | 149/3 |
| 17 | 26 | 175/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 180/3 |
| 19 | 9 | 189/3 |
| 20 | 10 | 199/4 |
Ali Khan: U.S. Embassy Port of Spain · Public domain
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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