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Bulgaria Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2025 · Men
11 Jul 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Gibraltar more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Gibraltar started on 55%; Gibraltar batted first.
Gibraltar's chances ranged from 0% to 96% during the match (Bulgaria: 4% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA Raikescaught · Zeerak Chughtai · Jakob Gul 4 fours · 8 sixes | caught · Zeerak Chughtai · b Jakob Gul | 73 | 33 | 4 | 8 | 221.21 |
| M Raikescaught · Zeerak Chughtai · M Gogev 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Zeerak Chughtai · b M Gogev | 21 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 161.54 |
| L Brucecaught · Bakhtiar Tahiri · Jakob Gul 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Bakhtiar Tahiri · b Jakob Gul | 24 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 184.62 |
| IDM Latinnot out 7 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 51* | 28 | 7 | 2 | 182.14 |
| C Pylecaught · H Lakov · Jakob Gul 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · H Lakov · b Jakob Gul | 22 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 200.00 |
| JA Fitzgerald |
| caught · D Nikolov · b Jakob Gul |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| K Mirpuricaught · H Lakov · Zeerak Chughtai 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · H Lakov · b Zeerak Chughtai | 21 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 175.00 |
|---|
| RJ Hatchmanrun out · M Gogev · M Gogev 2 fours · 1 sixes | run out · M Gogev | 17 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 212.50 |
|---|
| K Nestornot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danyal Raja0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 14.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Gagandeep Singh (3)0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 14.00 | 2 | 0 |
| M Gogev0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 60 | 1 | 15.00 | 1 | 0 |
| H Lakov0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakob Gul0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 4 | 9.25 | 1 | 0 |
| P Mishra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Zeerak Chughtai0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 10.50 | 2 | 0 |
1-58 (M Raikes, 4.2) · 2-108 (PA Raikes, 8.3) · 3-146 (L Bruce, 10.5) · 4-182 (C Pyle, 14.1) · 5-182 (JA Fitzgerald, 14.3) · 6-218 (K Mirpuri, 18.1) · 7-237 (RJ Hatchman, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 14 | 25/0 |
| 3 | 18 | 43/0 |
| 4 | 14 | 57/0 |
| 5 | 12 | 69/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 76/1 |
| 7 | 19 | 95/1 |
| 8 | 13 | 108/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 119/2 |
| 10 | 11 | 130/2 |
| 11 | 16 | 146/3 |
| 12 | 8 | 154/3 |
| 13 | 9 | 163/3 |
| 14 | 19 | 182/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 183/5 |
| 16 | 10 | 193/5 |
| 17 | 14 | 207/5 |
| 18 | 11 | 218/5 |
| 19 | 7 | 225/6 |
| 20 | 18 | 243/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.