Birmingham BearsversusNottinghamshire

14 Jun 2025 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nottinghamshire won by 6 wickets

Birmingham Bears20.0 overs206/7 Nottinghamshire20.0 overs212/4 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 63%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Nottinghamshire is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 12% to 93% during the match (Nottinghamshire: 7% to 89%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.2: Hasan Ali to LW James, LW James out. Birmingham Bears up from 35% to 57%.
2nd inns 19.1: EG Barnard to DR Sams, six by DR Sams. Nottinghamshire up from 24% to 56%.
2nd inns 19.4: EG Barnard to DR Sams, six by DR Sams. Nottinghamshire up from 42% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Birmingham Bears206/7 Nottinghamshire212/4

Innings 1