New ZealandversusIndia

India more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than New Zealand (1,870 vs 1,642 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and New Zealand won 1 (1 tied)
• India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

New Zealand started on 9%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand's chances ranged from 9% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 91%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 0.1: MJ Henry to Abhishek Sharma, Abhishek Sharma out. New Zealand up from 38% to 53%.
2. 2nd inns 1.6: JA Duffy to SA Yadav, SA Yadav out. New Zealand up from 50% to 69%.
3. 2nd inns 6.4: MJ Santner to SV Samson, SV Samson out. New Zealand up from 62% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.