Sri LankaversusNetherlands

16 Jun 2024 · T20

Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 83 runs

Sri Lanka20.0 overs201/6 Netherlands16.4 overs118/10 Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

63%Sri Lanka37%Netherlands

Why

In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 3 and Netherlands won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Netherlands (1,513 vs 1,501 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 60%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

0.2: VJ Kingma to P Nissanka, P Nissanka out. Netherlands up from 40% to 56%.
5.2: PA van Meekeren to PHKD Mendis, PHKD Mendis out. Netherlands up from 40% to 49%.
2nd inns 4.3: N Thushara to MP O'Dowd, MP O'Dowd out. Sri Lanka up from 65% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka201/6 Netherlands118/10

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

201/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Pathum Nissankacaught · Sybrand Engelbrecht · Vivian Kingma 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sybrand Engelbrecht · b Vivian Kingma	0	2	0	0	0.00
Kusal Mendiscaught · Sybrand Engelbrecht · Aryan Dutt 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sybrand Engelbrecht · b Aryan Dutt	46	29	5	0	158.62
Kamindu Mendiscaught · Logan van Beek · Paul van Meekeren 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Logan van Beek · b Paul van Meekeren	17	20	1	1	85.00
Dhananjaya de Silvacaught · Bas de Leede · Tim Pringle 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Bas de Leede · b Tim Pringle	34	26	3	1	130.77
Charith Asalankacaught · Bas de Leede · Logan van Beek 1 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Bas de Leede · b Logan van Beek	46

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Vivian Kingma0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	1	7.67	3
Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	1	7.67	1
Logan van Beek0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	2	11.25	2
Paul van Meekeren0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	37	1	12.33	2
Tim Pringle0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	1	10.25	0
Bas de Leede0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	0	10.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	4	7/1
3	7	14/1
4	5	19/1
5	13	32/1
6	13	45/2
7	5	50/2
8	8	58/2
9	12	70/2
10	4	74/2
11	10	84/2
12	6	90/3
13	16	106/3
14	13	119/3
15	5	124/4
16	10	134/4
17	19	153/4
18	19	172/6
19	12	184/6
20	17	201/6

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