Rajasthan RoyalsversusKolkata Knight Riders

26 Mar 2025 · T20

Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Kolkata Knight Riders won by 8 wickets

Rajasthan Royals20.0 overs151/9 Kolkata Knight Riders17.3 overs153/2 Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rajasthan Royals started on 45%; Rajasthan Royals batted first.

Rajasthan Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Kolkata Knight Riders is the rest

Rajasthan Royals's chances ranged from 0% to 60% during the match (Kolkata Knight Riders: 40% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.5: VG Arora to SV Samson, SV Samson out. Kolkata Knight Riders up from 41% to 51%.
9.5: CV Varun to PWH de Silva, PWH de Silva out. Kolkata Knight Riders up from 59% to 68%.
10.6: MM Ali to N Rana, N Rana out. Kolkata Knight Riders up from 67% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rajasthan Royals151/9 Kolkata Knight Riders153/2

Innings 1