QatarversusNepal

3 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 8 wickets

Qatar16.5 overs76/10 Nepal10.5 overs78/2 Kolej Tuanku Jaafar Cricket Oval, Mantin ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

20%Qatar80%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Qatar (1,514 vs 1,372 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Nepal won 4 and Qatar won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Qatar started on 18%; Qatar batted first.

Qatar’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Qatar's chances ranged from 0% to 33% during the match (Nepal: 67% to 100%).

Biggest swings

5.1: Riya Sharma to G Candiru, G Candiru out. Nepal up from 67% to 72%.
12.2: RC Belbashi to Aysha, Shahreeennawab out. Nepal up from 74% to 79%.
12.4: RC Belbashi to Roshni Sebastian, Roshni Sebastian out. Nepal up from 79% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Qatar76/10 Nepal78/2

Innings 1

Qatar

76/1016.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Qatar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Gertrude Candirucaught · Sita Rana Magar · Riya Sharma 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sita Rana Magar · b Riya Sharma	25	19	2	1	131.58
Fatima Mukadamcaught · R Poddar · K Kunwar 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · R Poddar · b K Kunwar	6	18	1	0	33.33
SK Ranacaught · Rubina Chhetri · Puja Mahato 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rubina Chhetri · b Puja Mahato	9	10	1	0	90.00
S Krishetacaught · Sony Pakhrin · Rubina Chhetri 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sony Pakhrin · b Rubina Chhetri	8	17	0	0	47.06
Aysharun out · Sony Pakhrin · Rubina Chhetri 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Sony Pakhrin	10	11	1	0	90.91

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
M Upadhayay0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	0	4.75	1
K Kunwar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	9	1	3.00	0
Riya Sharma1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	6	1	2.00	3
Puja Mahato0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	21	1	10.50	5
Sita Rana Magar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	0
Rubina Chhetri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	0	8	3	2.09	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	10	16/0
3	8	24/0
4	0	24/0
5	11	35/0
6	3	38/1
7	2	40/2
8	2	42/2
9	8	50/2
10	10	60/3
11	1	61/4
12	3	64/4
13	4	68/6
14	3	71/6
15	3	74/8
16	2	76/8
17	0	76/10

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