St Kitts and Nevis PatriotsversusSt Lucia Kings

28 Aug 2025 · T20

Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet · Venue photograph

Recorded result

St Lucia Kings won by 7 wickets

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs177/3 St Lucia Kings17.0 overs180/3 Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots started on 30%; St Kitts and Nevis Patriots batted first.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’s chance of winning (%) · St Lucia Kings is the rest

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (St Lucia Kings: 53% to 100%).

Biggest swings

5.3: RL Chase to E Lewis, E Lewis out. St Lucia Kings up from 54% to 64%.
8.1: T Shamsi to ADS Fletcher, ADS Fletcher out. St Lucia Kings up from 57% to 64%.
19.6: K Gaston to JO Holder, 1 run to JO Holder. St Lucia Kings up from 57% to 63%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots177/3 St Lucia Kings180/3

Innings 1