Central DistrictsversusAuckland

16 Jan 2026 · T20

McLean Park, Napier · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 29 runs

Central Districts20.0 overs136/4 Auckland19.3 overs107/10 McLean Park, Napier ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 41%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Auckland is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 34% to 100% during the match (Auckland: 0% to 66%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.6: RA Mair to P Catton, P Catton out. Central Districts up from 36% to 47%.
2nd inns 12.2: G Scrivens to BM Halliday, BM Halliday out. Central Districts up from 49% to 61%.
2nd inns 14.2: G Scrivens to LR Down, LR Down out. Central Districts up from 64% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts136/4 Auckland107/10

Innings 1