Lahore QalandarsversusIslamabad United

23 May 2025 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Lahore Qalandars won by 95 runs

Lahore Qalandars20.0 overs202/8 Islamabad United15.1 overs107/10 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lahore Qalandars started on 51%; Lahore Qalandars batted first.

Lahore Qalandars’s chance of winning (%) · Islamabad United is the rest

Lahore Qalandars's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Islamabad United: 0% to 57%).

Biggest swings

1.6: TS Mills to Fakhar Zaman, Fakhar Zaman out. Islamabad United up from 45% to 57%.
8.6: Imad Wasim to Muhammad Naeem, Muhammad Naeem out. Islamabad United up from 31% to 38%.
2nd inns 0.6: Shaheen Shah Afridi to Muhammad Shahzad, Muhammad Shahzad out. Lahore Qalandars up from 73% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lahore Qalandars202/8 Islamabad United107/10

Innings 1