Central DistrictsversusWellington

8 Jan 2024 · T20

McLean Park, Napier · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Wellington won by 8 wickets

Central Districts20.0 overs131/4 Wellington19.0 overs132/2 McLean Park, Napier ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 35%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Wellington is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 2% to 56% during the match (Wellington: 44% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.5: HM Rowe to RM Burns, RM Burns out. Central Districts up from 35% to 45%.
2nd inns 6.6: RA Mair to JT McFadyen, JT McFadyen out. Central Districts up from 41% to 51%.
2nd inns 11.6: HM Rowe to AC Kerr, 1 run to AC Kerr. Wellington up from 55% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts131/4 Wellington132/2

Innings 1