North America Cup · 2026 · Men

BermudaversusCayman Islands

23 Sept 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Cayman Islands won by 2 wickets

Bermuda19.2 overs113/10 Cayman Islands18.3 overs115/8 Jimmy Powell Oval, Cayman Islands ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bermuda more likely to win

65%Bermuda35%Cayman Islands

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bermuda won 9 and Cayman Islands won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bermuda rate stronger than Cayman Islands (1,568 vs 1,530 on our results rating)
Cayman Islands are playing at home in the Cayman Islands

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bermuda started on 63%; Bermuda batted first.

Bermuda’s chance of winning (%) · Cayman Islands is the rest

Bermuda's chances ranged from 3% to 66% during the match (Cayman Islands: 34% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.4: D Sabir to D Johnson, D Johnson out. Bermuda up from 14% to 30%.
2nd inns 16.6: DL Brangman to ROC Dunka, ROC Dunka out. Bermuda up from 12% to 28%.
2nd inns 17.2: D Sabir to R Edwards, four by R Edwards. Cayman Islands up from 68% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bermuda113/10 Cayman Islands115/8

Innings 1

Bermuda

113/1019.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bermuda batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Delray Rawlinscaught · J Baker · ROC Dunka 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Baker · b ROC Dunka	3	4	0	0	75.00
D Sabirbowled · V Dhaniram 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b V Dhaniram	1	2	0	0	50.00
Kamau Leverockcaught · ROC Dunka · A Wright 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · ROC Dunka · b A Wright	46	36	3	3	127.78
Terryn Fraycaught · V Dhaniram · M Ramlogan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · V Dhaniram · b M Ramlogan	3	10	0	0	30.00
Isaiah O'Briencaught · M Ramlogan · D Johnson1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
ROC Dunka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	27	3	9.00	0
V Dhaniram1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	24	1	6.00	0
M Ramlogan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	15	1	5.00	0
Andre McCarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	15	1	5.00	0
D Johnson1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	19	1	6.33	0
A Wright0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	2	3.33	0
Romario Edwards0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	0.2	0	1	1	3.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	0	4/2
3	14	18/2
4	3	21/2
5	5	26/3
6	8	34/3
7	3	37/3
8	11	48/3
9	7	55/3
10	4	59/3
11	9	68/3
12	3	71/4
13	0	71/5
14	4	75/5
15	10	85/5
16	3	88/6
17	13	101/6
18	2	103/7
19	9	112/9
20	1	113/10

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