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Men's T20 Asia Cup · 2025 · Men
17 Sept 2025 · T20
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 48%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 23% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 0% to 77%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahibzada Farhancaught · Muhammad Zohaib · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Muhammad Zohaib · b Junaid Siddique | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 41.67 |
| Saim Ayubcaught · Muhammad Rohid · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Muhammad Rohid · b Junaid Siddique | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Fakhar Zamancaught · H Kaushik · SS Kang2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · H Kaushik · b SS Kang | 50 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 138.89 |
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Haider Ali · D Parashar 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Haider Ali · b D Parashar | 20 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 74.07 |
| Hassan Nawazlbw · SS Kang 0 fours · 0 sixes |
| lbw · b SS Kang |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 75.00 |
| Khushdil Shahcaught · Waseem Muhammad · SS Kang 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b SS Kang | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Mohammad Harisbowled · Junaid Siddique 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Junaid Siddique | 18 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 128.57 |
|---|
| Mohammad Nawazcaught · Waseem Muhammad · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Junaid Siddique | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridinot out3 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 29* | 14 | 3 | 2 | 207.14 |
|---|
 Haris Raufrun out · Rahul Chopra, SS Kang · Muhammad Rohid0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rahul Chopra, SS Kang | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junaid Siddique0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 4.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Muhammad Rohid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
| D Parashar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Haider Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| SS Kang0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 6.50 | 3 | 1 |
1-3 (Saim Ayub, 0.5) · 2-9 (Sahibzada Farhan, 2.4) · 3-70 (Salman Ali Agha, 11.0) · 4-86 (Fakhar Zaman, 13.1) · 5-88 (Hassan Nawaz, 13.4) · 6-93 (Khushdil Shah, 15.1) · 7-110 (Mohammad Nawaz, 16.5) · 8-128 (Mohammad Haris, 18.5) · 9-146 (Haris Rauf, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 11/2 |
| 4 | 6 | 17/2 |
| 5 | 14 | 31/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 39/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 44/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 50/2 |
| 9 | 11 | 61/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 67/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 70/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 75/3 |
| 13 | 11 | 86/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 88/5 |
| 15 | 5 | 93/5 |
| 16 | 12 | 105/6 |
| 17 | 5 | 110/7 |
| 18 | 8 | 118/7 |
| 19 | 10 | 128/8 |
| 20 | 18 | 146/9 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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