MalaysiaversusNepal

22 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 7 wickets

Malaysia20.0 overs82/9 Nepal16.0 overs83/3 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

22%Malaysia78%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Malaysia (1,541 vs 1,314 on our results rating)
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Nepal won 6 and Malaysia won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 20%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 0% to 26% during the match (Nepal: 74% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.3: Nur Dania Syuhada to K Joshi, K Joshi out. Malaysia up from 9% to 14%.
2nd inns 3.4: Aisya Eleesa to Puja Mahato, Puja Mahato out. Malaysia up from 10% to 15%.
2nd inns 7.4: Nur Qalysha to S Pakhrin, four by S Pakhrin. Nepal up from 84% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia82/9 Nepal83/3

Innings 1

Malaysia

82/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malaysia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ainna Hamizah Hashimcaught and bowled · Puja Mahato 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Puja Mahato	17	30	1	0	56.67
Elsa Hunterbowled · K Kunwar 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b K Kunwar	6	11	1	0	54.55
Mas Elysalbw · K Kunwar 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b K Kunwar	7	9	1	0	77.78
Mahirah Ismailcaught · Samjhana Khadka · Riya Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Samjhana Khadka · b Riya Sharma	3	9	0	0	33.33
Nur Dania Syuhadalbw · Riya Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Riya Sharma	0	3

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
M Upadhayay0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	22	0	7.33	0
K Kunwar2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	10	2	2.50	1
Puja Mahato0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	1	5.00	1
Riya Sharma1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	2	3.50	1
Rubina Chhetri0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	5	2	2.50	1
Sita Rana Magar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	6	1	2.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	0	7/0
3	5	12/0
4	5	17/1
5	10	27/1
6	0	27/2
7	4	31/2
8	0	31/4
9	2	33/4
10	5	38/4
11	3	41/4
12	3	44/4
13	8	52/5
14	1	53/5
15	2	55/7
16	4	59/7
17	7	66/7
18	2	68/8
19	5	73/9
20	9	82/9

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