**St George's Park, Gqeberha**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusPaarl Royals

1 Feb 2025 · T20

St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Eastern Cape won by 48 runs

Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs148/8 Paarl Royals18.2 overs100/10 St George's Park, Gqeberha ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 50%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Paarl Royals: 0% to 72%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.4: M Jansen to MJ Owen, MJ Owen out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 46% to 58%.
2nd inns 2.1: C Overton to M Van Buuren, M Van Buuren out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 60% to 80%.
2nd inns 2.4: C Overton to D Marais, D Marais out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 77% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape148/8 Paarl Royals100/10

Innings 1