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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
24 Oct 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Rwanda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Rwanda started on 61%; Rwanda batted first.
Rwanda's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Seychelles: 0% to 65%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O Manishimwecaught · T Horpinitch · Jobayer Hossen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Horpinitch · b Jobayer Hossen | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| D Ndikubwimanacaught · T Horpinitch · Jobayer Hossen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Horpinitch · b Jobayer Hossen | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| I Niyomugabobowled · TKP Rajapaksha 5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b TKP Rajapaksha | 39 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 125.81 |
| D Gumyusengecaught · Mazharul Islam · Jobayer Hossen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mazharul Islam · b Jobayer Hossen | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| Yves Cyusarun out · TKP Rajapaksha, Mazharul Islam · TKP Rajapaksha 5 fours · 0 sixes | run out · TKP Rajapaksha, Mazharul Islam | 30 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 130.43 |
| C Rububagumyalbw · SKDT Madusanka 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b SKDT Madusanka | 31 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 114.81 |
|---|
| E Rukirizacaught · SR Mohan · S Rukmal 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · SR Mohan · b S Rukmal | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Muhammad Nadirnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 17* | 9 | 1 | 1 | 188.89 |
|---|
| I Mugishacaught · S Rukmal · Jobayer Hossen 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Rukmal · b Jobayer Hossen | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Z Bimenyimanabowled · Jobayer Hossen 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jobayer Hossen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HL Harji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Jobayer Hossen0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 5 | 6.25 | 4 | 0 |
| S Rukmal0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 3 | 0 |
| SKDT Madusanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| TKP Rajapaksha0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 4 | 0 |
| STRA de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (O Manishimwe, 1.1) · 2-6 (D Ndikubwimana, 1.4) · 3-16 (D Gumyusenge, 3.1) · 4-62 (Yves Cyusa, 9.1) · 5-101 (I Niyomugabo, 13.5) · 6-122 (C Rububagumya, 17.0) · 7-126 (E Rukiriza, 17.5) · 8-146 (I Mugisha, 19.5) · 9-146 (Z Bimenyimana, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 6/2 |
| 3 | 10 | 16/2 |
| 4 | 6 | 22/3 |
| 5 | 9 | 31/3 |
| 6 | 7 | 38/3 |
| 7 | 4 | 42/3 |
| 8 | 7 | 49/3 |
| 9 | 13 | 62/3 |
| 10 | 8 | 70/4 |
| 11 | 11 | 81/4 |
| 12 | 6 | 87/4 |
| 13 | 8 | 95/4 |
| 14 | 6 | 101/5 |
| 15 | 9 | 110/5 |
| 16 | 7 | 117/5 |
| 17 | 5 | 122/6 |
| 18 | 4 | 126/7 |
| 19 | 11 | 137/7 |
| 20 | 9 | 146/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.