GloucestershireversusSussex

17 Jul 2025 · T20

College Ground, Cheltenham · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sussex won by 4 wickets

Gloucestershire20.0 overs185/5 Sussex20.0 overs189/6 College Ground, Cheltenham ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 49%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Sussex is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 16% to 84% during the match (Sussex: 16% to 84%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.6: J Shaw to TP Alsop, TP Alsop out. Gloucestershire up from 46% to 72%.
2nd inns 19.3: DA Payne to DJ Lamb, four by DJ Lamb. Sussex up from 19% to 46%.
2nd inns 19.5: DA Payne to DJ Lamb, four by DJ Lamb. Sussex up from 51% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire185/5 Sussex189/6

Innings 1