Hobart HurricanesversusSydney Thunder

28 Oct 2024 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 31 runs

Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs141/7 Sydney Thunder18.0 overs110/10 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 52%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Thunder is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 39% to 100% during the match (Sydney Thunder: 1% to 61%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.3: CL Tryon to GL Adams, GL Adams out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 68% to 84%.
2nd inns 13.5: H Graham to SJ Johnson, SJ Johnson out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 48% to 71%.
2nd inns 14.2: NJ Carey to A Learoyd, A Learoyd out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 68% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes141/7 Sydney Thunder110/10

Innings 1