New ZealandversusPakistan

25 Apr 2024 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 4 runs

New Zealand20.0 overs178/7 Pakistan20.0 overs174/8 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

58%New Zealand42%Pakistan

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 7 and Pakistan won 3
On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Pakistan (1,570 vs 1,529 on our results rating)
Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 57%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 38% to 96% during the match (Pakistan: 5% to 62%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.4: MG Bracewell to Shadab Khan, Shadab Khan out. New Zealand up from 56% to 73%.
2nd inns 16.3: W O'Rourke to Iftikhar Ahmed, Iftikhar Ahmed out. New Zealand up from 38% to 57%.
2nd inns 18.1: JA Duffy to Abbas Afridi, Abbas Afridi out. New Zealand up from 72% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand178/7 Pakistan174/8

Innings 1

New Zealand

178/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tim Robinsoncaught · Iftikhar Ahmed · Abbas Afridi 4 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Iftikhar Ahmed · b Abbas Afridi	51	36	4	2	141.67
Tom Blundellcaught · Usama Mir · Zaman Khan 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Usama Mir · b Zaman Khan	28	15	5	0	186.67
Dean Foxcroftcaught · Fakhar Zaman · Usama Mir 0 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Usama Mir	34	26	0	3	130.77
Mark Chapmancaught · Shadab Khan · Iftikhar Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shadab Khan · b Iftikhar Ahmed	8	9	1	0	88.89
James Neeshamnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes	not out

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Imad Wasim0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	0	8.00	4	0
Mohammad Amir0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	3	0
Zaman Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	35	1	11.67	1	1
Abbas Afridi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	3	6.67	1	0
Usama Mir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	43	1	10.75	0	0
Iftikhar Ahmed0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	1	7.00	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	14	14/0
2	8	22/0
3	11	33/0
4	11	44/0
5	12	56/1
6	6	62/1
7	9	71/1
8	5	76/1
9	13	89/1
10	4	93/1
11	5	98/2
12	15	113/2
13	9	122/2
14	7	129/3
15	6	135/4
16	8	143/4
17	12	155/4
18	9	164/4
19	5	169/6
20	9	178/7

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