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Photo: Neweditorpk
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Pakistan T20I Tri-Series · 2025/26 · Men
22 Nov 2025 · T20
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 22%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 34% during the match (Pakistan: 67% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Abrar Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Abrar Ahmed | 17 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 73.91 |
| Kamil Misharacaught · Fakhar Zaman · Fahim Ashraf 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Fahim Ashraf | 22 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 183.33 |
| Kusal Mendisrun out · Usman Khan, Mohammad Wasim · Fahim Ashraf 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Usman Khan, Mohammad Wasim | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Kushal Janith Pererabowled · Mohammad Nawaz 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Nawaz | 25 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 131.58 |
3 fours · 1 sixes |
| not out |
| 41* |
| 38 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 107.89 |
| Dasun Shanakabowled · Mohammad Nawaz 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Nawaz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Mohammad Wasim · Mohammad Nawaz 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Wasim · b Mohammad Nawaz | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sahibzada Farhan · b Salman Mirza | 11 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 91.67 |
|---|
| Vijayakanth Viyaskanthnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salman Mirza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Wasim0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 4 | 0 | |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-31 (Kamil Mishara, 3.2) · 2-38 (Kusal Mendis, 5.4) · 3-60 (Pathum Nissanka, 8.1) · 4-78 (Kushal Janith Perera, 11.3) · 5-78 (Dasun Shanaka, 11.4) · 6-86 (Kamindu Mendis, 13.3) · 7-121 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 18.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 32/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 34/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 44/2 |
| 7 | 11 | 55/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 60/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 61/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 65/3 |
| 11 | 11 | 76/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 80/5 |
| 13 | 4 | 84/5 |
| 14 | 4 | 88/6 |
| 15 | 3 | 91/6 |
| 16 | 3 | 94/6 |
| 17 | 13 | 107/6 |
| 18 | 8 | 115/6 |
| 19 | 6 | 121/7 |
| 20 | 7 | 128/7 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.