Northern DiamondsversusCentral Sparks

8 Jun 2024 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northern Diamonds won by 13 runs

Northern Diamonds20.0 overs137/7 Central Sparks20.0 overs124/8 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Diamonds started on 41%; Northern Diamonds batted first.

Northern Diamonds’s chance of winning (%) · Central Sparks is the rest

Northern Diamonds's chances ranged from 25% to 99% during the match (Central Sparks: 1% to 75%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.3: HJ Armitage to D Perrin, D Perrin out. Northern Diamonds up from 28% to 39%.
2nd inns 13.3: K Fraser to E Jones, E Jones out. Northern Diamonds up from 43% to 56%.
2nd inns 16.4: KA Levick to KL George, KL George out. Northern Diamonds up from 59% to 75%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Diamonds137/7 Central Sparks124/8

Innings 1