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Photo: St Kitts & Nevis Government; permission: https://www.flickr.com/photos/skngov/14733563912
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Bangladesh tour of West Indies · 2024/25 · Men
10 Dec 2024 · ODI
Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 44%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanzid Hasancaught · Roston Chase · Justin Greaves 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Roston Chase · b Justin Greaves | 46 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 139.39 |
 Soumya Sarkarcaught · Gudakesh Motie · Jayden Seales0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gudakesh Motie · b Jayden Seales | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
 Litton Dascaught · Evin Lewis · Jayden Seales0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Evin Lewis · b Jayden Seales | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 21.05 |
 Mehedi Hasanbowled · Jayden Seales0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jayden Seales | 1 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (West Indies: 38% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 20.00 |
| Afif Hossaincaught · Sherfane Rutherford · Gudakesh Motie 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sherfane Rutherford · b Gudakesh Motie | 24 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 82.76 |
|---|
 Mahmudullahcaught · Gudakesh Motie · Jayden Seales2 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Gudakesh Motie · b Jayden Seales | 62 | 92 | 2 | 4 | 67.39 |
|---|
 Jaker Alilbw · Gudakesh Motie0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Gudakesh Motie | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossaincaught · Roston Chase · Marquino Mindley0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Roston Chase · b Marquino Mindley | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Tanzim Hasan Sakibcaught and bowled · Roston Chase4 fours · 2 sixes | caught and bowled · b Roston Chase | 45 | 62 | 4 | 2 | 72.58 |
|---|
 Shariful Islamcaught · Gudakesh Motie · Romario Shepherd2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Gudakesh Motie · b Romario Shepherd | 15 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 187.50 |
|---|
 Nahid Rananot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquino Mindley1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 45 | 1 | 6.43 | 1 | 0 |
| Jayden Seales1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 2.44 | 4 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.5 | 1 | 50 | 1 | 5.66 | 3 | 0 |
| Justin Greaves0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 6.29 | 0 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 36 | 2 | 3.60 | 1 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-26 (Soumya Sarkar, 3.1) · 2-41 (Litton Das, 8.0) · 3-54 (Mehedi Hasan, 9.5) · 4-64 (Tanzid Hasan, 10.5) · 5-100 (Afif Hossain, 18.5) · 6-104 (Jaker Ali, 21.0) · 7-115 (Rishad Hossain, 25.3) · 8-207 (Tanzim Hasan Sakib, 43.1) · 9-209 (Mahmudullah, 44.1) · 10-227 (Shariful Islam, 45.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 18 | 26/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 28/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 34/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 38/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 40/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 41/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 45/2 |
| 10 | 10 | 55/3 |
| 11 | 9 | 64/4 |
| 12 | 1 | 65/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 68/4 |
| 14 | 14 | 82/4 |
| 15 | 2 | 84/4 |
| 16 | 7 | 91/4 |
| 17 | 1 | 92/4 |
| 18 | 7 | 99/4 |
| 19 | 2 | 101/5 |
| 20 | 3 | 104/5 |
| 21 | 0 | 104/6 |
| 22 | 3 | 107/6 |
| 23 | 1 | 108/6 |
| 24 | 1 | 109/6 |
| 25 | 6 | 115/6 |
| 26 | 0 | 115/7 |
| 27 | 1 | 116/7 |
| 28 | 1 | 117/7 |
| 29 | 2 | 119/7 |
| 30 | 12 | 131/7 |
| 31 | 6 | 137/7 |
| 32 | 0 | 137/7 |
| 33 | 9 | 146/7 |
| 34 | 1 | 147/7 |
| 35 | 10 | 157/7 |
| 36 | 4 | 161/7 |
| 37 | 6 | 167/7 |
| 38 | 5 | 172/7 |
| 39 | 7 | 179/7 |
| 40 | 7 | 186/7 |
| 41 | 5 | 191/7 |
| 42 | 4 | 195/7 |
| 43 | 12 | 207/7 |
| 44 | 2 | 209/8 |
| 45 | 4 | 213/9 |
| 46 | 14 | 227/10 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Mahmudullah: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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