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Photo: Dave Morton
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Scotland tour of United Arab Emirates · 2023/24 · Men
11 Mar 2024 · T20
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 53%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 66% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 34% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Munseycaught · Aryan Lakra · Aayan Afzal Khan 9 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Aryan Lakra · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 75 | 49 | 9 | 3 | 153.06 |
| Ollie Hairsbowled · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Junaid Siddique | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Brandon McMullenbowled · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Junaid Siddique | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| Richie Berringtoncaught · Alishan Sharafu · Aayan Afzal Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alishan Sharafu · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Michael Leasklbw · Basil Hameed 1 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Basil Hameed | 19 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 126.67 |
| stumped · T Suri · b Basil Hameed |
| 21 |
| 19 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 110.53 |
| Matty Crossnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Chris Greavescaught · T Suri · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Suri · b Junaid Siddique | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Mark Wattbowled · Junaid Siddique0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Junaid Siddique | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Safyaan Sharifnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junaid Siddique0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 3.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Hazrat Luqman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Akif Raja0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 9.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Aayan Afzal Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Basil Hameed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Zuhaib Zubair0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Ollie Hairs, 0.2) · 2-13 (Brandon McMullen, 3.0) · 3-49 (Richie Berrington, 6.4) · 4-78 (Michael Leask, 9.5) · 5-130 (Jack Jarvis, 15.5) · 6-134 (George Munsey, 16.5) · 7-135 (Chris Greaves, 17.2) · 8-135 (Mark Watt, 17.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 13/2 |
| 4 | 10 | 23/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 29/2 |
| 6 | 18 | 47/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 50/3 |
| 8 | 17 | 67/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 74/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 79/4 |
| 11 | 8 | 87/4 |
| 12 | 11 | 98/4 |
| 13 | 4 | 102/4 |
| 14 | 5 | 107/4 |
| 15 | 20 | 127/4 |
| 16 | 5 | 132/5 |
| 17 | 2 | 134/6 |
| 18 | 2 | 136/8 |
| 19 | 5 | 141/8 |
| 20 | 6 | 147/8 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
