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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
16 Oct 2025 · ODI
Dr. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy ACA-VDCA Cricket Stadium, Visakhapatnam · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 7%; Bangladesh batted first.
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 11% during the match (Australia: 89% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fargana Hoquecaught · Beth Mooney · Megan Schutt1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Megan Schutt | 8 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Rubya Haidercaught · Tahlia McGrath · Ashleigh Gardner 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tahlia McGrath · b Ashleigh Gardner | 44 | 59 | 8 | 0 | 74.58 |
 Sharmin Akhtercaught · Annabel Sutherland · Ashleigh Gardner3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Ashleigh Gardner | 19 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 57.58 |
 Nigar Sultanastumped · Alyssa Healy · Alana King0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 12 |
| 35 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 34.29 |
| Sobhana Mostarynot out 9 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 66* | 80 | 9 | 0 | 82.50 |
|---|
| Shorna Aktercaught · Beth Mooney · Alana King 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Alana King | 7 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 29.17 |
|---|
| Ritu Monicaught · Tahlia McGrath · Georgia Wareham 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tahlia McGrath · b Georgia Wareham | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
 Fahima Khatuncaught · Beth Mooney · Annabel Sutherland0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Annabel Sutherland | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Rabeya Khancaught · Ashleigh Gardner · Georgia Wareham 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ashleigh Gardner · b Georgia Wareham | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
| Nishita Akter Nishilbw · Annabel Sutherland 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Annabel Sutherland | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Fariha Trisnanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 22 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Megan Schutt1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 2.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Darcie Brown0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 5.78 | 3 | 0 |
 Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 5.33 | 4 | 0 |
 Annabel Sutherland1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 41 | 2 | 4.10 | 5 | 0 |
 Alana King4 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 1.80 | 5 | 0 |
 Georgia Wareham1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 3.14 | 5 | 0 |
1-32 (Fargana Hoque, 9.0) · 2-73 (Rubya Haider, 17.5) · 3-84 (Sharmin Akhter, 21.5) · 4-104 (Nigar Sultana, 27.0) · 5-127 (Shorna Akter, 34.3) · 6-131 (Ritu Moni, 37.0) · 7-153 (Fahima Khatun, 41.4) · 8-162 (Rabeya Khan, 44.2) · 9-165 (Nishita Akter Nishi, 45.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 18/0 |
| 6 | 11 | 29/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 30/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 32/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 32/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 37/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 45/1 |
| 12 | 0 | 45/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 52/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 56/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 58/1 |
| 16 | 9 | 67/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 69/1 |
| 18 | 5 | 74/2 |
| 19 | 0 | 74/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 76/2 |
| 21 | 6 | 82/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 86/3 |
| 23 | 9 | 95/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 98/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 101/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 103/3 |
| 27 | 1 | 104/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 107/4 |
| 29 | 0 | 107/4 |
| 30 | 2 | 109/4 |
| 31 | 0 | 109/4 |
| 32 | 9 | 118/4 |
| 33 | 1 | 119/4 |
| 34 | 8 | 127/4 |
| 35 | 0 | 127/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 129/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 131/6 |
| 38 | 2 | 133/6 |
| 39 | 2 | 135/6 |
| 40 | 15 | 150/6 |
| 41 | 1 | 151/6 |
| 42 | 3 | 154/7 |
| 43 | 2 | 156/7 |
| 44 | 6 | 162/7 |
| 45 | 0 | 162/8 |
| 46 | 3 | 165/9 |
| 47 | 5 | 170/9 |
| 48 | 6 | 176/9 |
| 49 | 11 | 187/9 |
| 50 | 11 | 198/9 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Darcie Brown: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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