West IndiesversusSouth Africa

27 Jan 2026 · T20

Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 9 wickets

West Indies20.0 overs173/7 South Africa17.5 overs176/1 Boland Park, Paarl ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

49%West Indies51%South Africa

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 8 and South Africa won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than West Indies (1,565 vs 1,520 on our results rating)
South Africa are playing at home in South Africa

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 46%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 68% during the match (South Africa: 32% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.2: C Bosch to BA King, BA King out. South Africa up from 41% to 52%.
5.4: KA Maharaj to SE Rutherford, SE Rutherford out. South Africa up from 50% to 61%.
11.1: GF Linde to RL Chase, RL Chase out. South Africa up from 50% to 63%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies173/7 South Africa176/1

Innings 1

West Indies

173/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Brandon Kingbowled · Corbin Bosch 5 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Corbin Bosch	27	16	5	1	168.75
Johnson Charlesbowled · Keshav Maharaj 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Keshav Maharaj	13	9	1	1	144.44
Matthew Fordecaught · Kagiso Rabada · Corbin Bosch 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Kagiso Rabada · b Corbin Bosch	16	12	0	2	133.33
Sherfane Rutherfordbowled · Keshav Maharaj 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Keshav Maharaj	6	6	1	0	100.00
Roston Chasebowled · George Linde 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b George Linde

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Kagiso Rabada0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	0	8.75	2	0
George Linde0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	3	6.25	1	0
Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	44	2	11.00	0	0
Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	2	8.75	2	0
Kwena Maphaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	30	0	7.50	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	5	15/0
3	14	29/0
4	10	39/1
5	9	48/2
6	9	57/3
7	6	63/3
8	10	73/3
9	6	79/4
10	9	88/4
11	7	95/4
12	8	103/5
13	2	105/5
14	16	121/5
15	13	134/5
16	6	140/5
17	10	150/5
18	4	154/5
19	14	168/5
20	5	173/7

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