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South Africa Women tour of India · 2024 · Women
19 Jun 2024 · ODI
M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 57%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Smriti Mandhanacaught · Tazmin Brits · Nonkululeko Mlaba18 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Tazmin Brits · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 136 | 120 | 18 | 2 | 113.33 |
 Shafali Vermacaught · Masabata Klaas · Nonkululeko Mlaba3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Masabata Klaas · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 20 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 52.63 |
| Dayalan Hemalathacaught · Anne Bosch · Masabata Klaas 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Anne Bosch · b Masabata Klaas | 24 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 58.54 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurnot out9 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 103* |
India's chances ranged from 45% to 95% during the match (South Africa: 5% to 55%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 88 |
| 9 |
| 3 |
| 117.05 |
 Richa Ghoshnot out3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 25* | 13 | 3 | 1 | 192.31 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 14 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ayabonga Khaka2 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 51 | 0 | 5.10 | 6 | 0 |
| Masabata Klaas0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 67 | 1 | 6.70 | 5 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 50 | 0 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 51 | 2 | 5.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Nondumiso Shangase0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 9.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Anne Bosch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Suné Luus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 7.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-38 (Shafali Verma, 11.4) · 2-100 (Dayalan Hemalatha, 23.0) · 3-271 (Smriti Mandhana, 45.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 1/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 11/0 |
| 7 | 7 | 18/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 23/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 27/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 28/0 |
| 11 | 5 | 33/0 |
| 12 | 5 | 38/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 44/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 45/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 47/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 48/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 53/1 |
| 18 | 11 | 64/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 67/1 |
| 20 | 8 | 75/1 |
| 21 | 6 | 81/1 |
| 22 | 15 | 96/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 100/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 101/2 |
| 25 | 10 | 111/2 |
| 26 | 5 | 116/2 |
| 27 | 9 | 125/2 |
| 28 | 4 | 129/2 |
| 29 | 6 | 135/2 |
| 30 | 10 | 145/2 |
| 31 | 6 | 151/2 |
| 32 | 1 | 152/2 |
| 33 | 8 | 160/2 |
| 34 | 6 | 166/2 |
| 35 | 16 | 182/2 |
| 36 | 4 | 186/2 |
| 37 | 7 | 193/2 |
| 38 | 7 | 200/2 |
| 39 | 5 | 205/2 |
| 40 | 2 | 207/2 |
| 41 | 9 | 216/2 |
| 42 | 4 | 220/2 |
| 43 | 10 | 230/2 |
| 44 | 19 | 249/2 |
| 45 | 17 | 266/2 |
| 46 | 6 | 272/3 |
| 47 | 13 | 285/3 |
| 48 | 17 | 302/3 |
| 49 | 7 | 309/3 |
| 50 | 16 | 325/3 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Pooja Vastrakar: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Radha Yadav: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shafali Verma: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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