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Nepal tour of United States of America · 2024/25 · Men
17 Oct 2024 · T20
Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 38%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 64%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anil Sahlbw · Ali Khan 2 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Ali Khan | 27 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 150.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhbowled · Harmeet Singh 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Harmeet Singh | 27 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Kushal Bhurtelbowled · Nosthush Kenjige0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nosthush Kenjige | 10 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 76.92 |
 Rohit Kumarrun out · Andries Gous, Milind Kumar · Jasdeep Singh4 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Andries Gous, Milind Kumar | 49 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 148.48 |
 |
| bowled · b Harmeet Singh |
| 11 |
| 7 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 157.14 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Aaron Jones · Saurabh Netravalkar2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aaron Jones · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 28 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 164.71 |
|---|
 Karan KCcaught · Andries Gous · Saurabh Netravalkar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Andries Gous · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Aarif Sheikhcaught · Shayan Jahangir · Jasdeep Singh0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shayan Jahangir · b Jasdeep Singh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Sompal Kamibowled · Jasdeep Singh0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasdeep Singh | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Sagar Dhakalnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Ali Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Nosthush Kenjige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jasdeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-48 (Anil Sah, 5.3) · 2-69 (Aasif Sheikh, 9.1) · 3-75 (Kushal Bhurtel, 10.1) · 4-93 (Gulsan Jha, 12.3) · 5-159 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 18.5) · 6-159 (Karan KC, 19.0) · 7-160 (Aarif Sheikh, 19.2) · 8-162 (Sompal Kami, 19.4) · 9-164 (Rohit Kumar, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 37/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 46/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 50/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 54/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 60/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 69/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 75/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 83/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 90/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 93/4 |
| 14 | 12 | 105/4 |
| 15 | 10 | 115/4 |
| 16 | 6 | 121/4 |
| 17 | 14 | 135/4 |
| 18 | 15 | 150/4 |
| 19 | 9 | 159/6 |
| 20 | 5 | 164/9 |
Ali Khan: U.S. Embassy Port of Spain · Public domain
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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