PakistanversusBangladesh

25 Sept 2025 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 11 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs135/8 Bangladesh20.0 overs124/9 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

61%Pakistan39%Bangladesh

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 7 and Bangladesh won 3
On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,638 vs 1,612 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 58%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 16% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 84%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.1: Haris Rauf to Saif Hassan, Saif Hassan out. Pakistan up from 43% to 59%.
2nd inns 7.6: Mohammad Nawaz to Mahedi Hasan, Mahedi Hasan out. Pakistan up from 52% to 70%.
2nd inns 11.4: Saim Ayub to Nurul Hasan, Nurul Hasan out. Pakistan up from 62% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan135/8 Bangladesh124/9

Innings 1

Pakistan

135/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sahibzada Farhancaught · Rishad Hossain · Taskin Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rishad Hossain · b Taskin Ahmed	4	4	1	0	100.00
Fakhar Zamancaught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · Rishad Hossain 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · b Rishad Hossain	13	20	2	0	65.00
Saim Ayubcaught · Rishad Hossain · Mahedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rishad Hossain · b Mahedi Hasan	0	3	0	0	0.00
Salman Ali Aghacaught · Jaker Ali · Mustafizur Rahman 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jaker Ali · b Mustafizur Rahman	19	23	2	0	82.61
Hussain Talatcaught · Saif Hassan · Rishad Hossain0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	3	7.00	0
Mahedi Hasan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	1
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	0	7.00	1
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	2
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	2	4.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	1	5/2
3	4	9/2
4	6	15/2
5	6	21/2
6	6	27/2
7	2	29/3
8	4	33/3
9	4	37/4
10	9	46/4
11	5	51/5
12	4	55/5
13	10	65/5
14	10	75/6
15	8	83/6
16	11	94/6
17	8	102/6
18	12	114/7
19	10	124/8
20	11	135/8

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