Royal Challengers BengaluruversusChennai Super Kings

5 Apr 2026 · T20

M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 43 runs

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs250/3 Chennai Super Kings19.4 overs207/10 M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 63%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Chennai Super Kings is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Chennai Super Kings: 0% to 38%).

Biggest swings

3.2: MJ Henry to V Kohli, six by V Kohli. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 63% to 68%.
4.3: A Kamboj to V Kohli, V Kohli out. Chennai Super Kings up from 28% to 37%.
10.4: S Dube to PD Salt, PD Salt out. Chennai Super Kings up from 25% to 32%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru250/3 Chennai Super Kings207/10

Innings 1