Los Angeles Knight RidersversusMI New York

21 Jul 2024 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

MI New York won by 4 wickets

Los Angeles Knight Riders19.1 overs130/10 MI New York17.0 overs134/6 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Los Angeles Knight Riders started on 47%; Los Angeles Knight Riders batted first.

Los Angeles Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · MI New York is the rest

Los Angeles Knight Riders's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (MI New York: 41% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.5: TA Boult to SP Narine, SP Narine out. MI New York up from 41% to 52%.
2nd inns 7.5: SP Narine to MD Patel, MD Patel out. Los Angeles Knight Riders up from 30% to 44%.
2nd inns 13.2: SP Narine to R Shepherd, R Shepherd out. Los Angeles Knight Riders up from 11% to 21%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Los Angeles Knight Riders130/10 MI New York134/6

Innings 1