JapanversusThailand

Japan more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Japan rate stronger than Thailand (1,562 vs 1,355 on our results rating)
• In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Japan won 2 and Thailand won 0
• Japan are playing at home in Japan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Japan started on 86%; Japan batted first.

Japan's chances ranged from 16% to 86% during the match (Thailand: 14% to 84%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 18.3: C Hinze to AV Lazarus, six by AV Lazarus. Thailand up from 42% to 71%.
2. 2nd inns 19.2: S Sugaya-Slater to AV Lazarus, four by AV Lazarus. Thailand up from 57% to 84%.
3. 2nd inns 19.5: S Sugaya-Slater to AV Lazarus, four by AV Lazarus. Thailand up from 82% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.