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Photo: Rae Allen
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Big Bash League · 2025/26 · Men
18 Jan 2026 · T20
Brisbane Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Brisbane Heat started on 47%; Brisbane Heat batted first.
Brisbane Heat's chances ranged from 0% to 55% during the match (Sydney Sixers: 45% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Wildermuthcaught · Sean Abbott · Mitchell Starc 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sean Abbott · b Mitchell Starc | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Usman Khawajacaught · Ben Dwarshuis · Sean Abbott2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Dwarshuis · b Sean Abbott | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 157.14 |
| Nathan McSweeneynot out 8 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 69* | 54 | 8 | 0 | 127.78 |
 Matt Renshawcaught · Josh Philippe · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Philippe · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| caught · Lachlan Shaw · b Joel Davies |
| 18 |
| 18 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Max Bryantlbw · Sam Curran 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sam Curran | 14 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 107.69 |
|---|
 James Peirsoncaught · Sam Curran · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sam Curran · b Mitchell Starc | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Michael Nesercaught · Lachlan Shaw · Sam Curran5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Lachlan Shaw · b Sam Curran | 35 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Xavier Bartlettcaught · Moisés Henriques · Mitchell Starc 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Moisés Henriques · b Mitchell Starc | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Matthew Kuhnemannrun out · Josh Philippe, Sam Curran · Sam Curran 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Josh Philippe, Sam Curran | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Zaman Khannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 14 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 4 | 8.75 | 5 | 0 |
 Sean Abbott0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Edwards0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 8.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Joel Davies0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Ben Dwarshuis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 9.25 | 4 | 0 |
1-6 (Jack Wildermuth, 0.5) · 2-12 (Usman Khawaja, 1.4) · 3-18 (Matt Renshaw, 2.4) · 4-59 (Marnus Labuschagne, 9.4) · 5-95 (Max Bryant, 13.5) · 6-96 (James Peirson, 14.1) · 7-144 (Michael Neser, 17.2) · 8-155 (Xavier Bartlett, 19.0) · 9-167 (Matthew Kuhnemann, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 12/2 |
| 3 | 10 | 22/3 |
| 4 | 5 | 27/3 |
| 5 | 5 | 32/3 |
| 6 | 5 | 37/3 |
| 7 | 7 | 44/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 50/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 57/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 59/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 65/4 |
| 12 | 12 | 77/4 |
| 13 | 10 | 87/4 |
| 14 | 9 | 96/5 |
| 15 | 12 | 108/6 |
| 16 | 18 | 126/6 |
| 17 | 16 | 142/6 |
| 18 | 6 | 148/7 |
| 19 | 7 | 155/8 |
| 20 | 16 | 171/9 |
Moisés Henriques: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Michael Neser: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
James Peirson: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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