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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
16 Feb 2026 · T20
Eden Gardens, Kolkata · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 79%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 60% to 100% during the match (Italy: 0% to 40%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltcaught · AJ Mosca · Ali Hasan2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · AJ Mosca · b Ali Hasan | 28 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 186.67 |
 Jos Buttlercaught · Harry Manenti · Grant Stewart0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Manenti · b Grant Stewart | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Jaspreet Singh · Ben Manenti 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jaspreet Singh · b Ben Manenti | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 115.00 |
| Tom Bantoncaught · Ben Manenti · CJPF Kalugamage 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ben Manenti · b CJPF Kalugamage | 30 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 142.86 |
| caught · Gian-Piero Meade · b Jon-Jon Smuts |
| 14 |
| 9 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 155.56 |
 Sam Currancaught · Jon-Jon Smuts · CJPF Kalugamage0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Jon-Jon Smuts · b CJPF Kalugamage | 25 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 131.58 |
|---|
 Will Jacksnot out3 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 53* | 22 | 3 | 4 | 240.91 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtoncaught · CJPF Kalugamage · Grant Stewart1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · CJPF Kalugamage · b Grant Stewart | 15 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 166.67 |
|---|
 Jofra Archernot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon-Jon Smuts0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ali Hasan0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 9.25 | 3 | 0 |
 Grant Stewart0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 51 | 2 | 12.75 | 4 | 0 |
| CJPF Kalugamage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 10.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Ben Manenti0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 9.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaspreet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-21 (Jos Buttler, 2.1) · 2-54 (Philip Salt, 5.4) · 3-67 (Jacob Bethell, 7.3) · 4-92 (Harry Brook, 10.3) · 5-105 (Tom Banton, 12.4) · 6-159 (Sam Curran, 16.5) · 7-194 (Jamie Overton, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 21/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 26/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 33/1 |
| 5 | 17 | 50/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 56/2 |
| 7 | 10 | 66/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 72/3 |
| 9 | 4 | 76/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 82/3 |
| 11 | 11 | 93/4 |
| 12 | 4 | 97/4 |
| 13 | 10 | 107/5 |
| 14 | 7 | 114/5 |
| 15 | 10 | 124/5 |
| 16 | 20 | 144/5 |
| 17 | 16 | 160/6 |
| 18 | 14 | 174/6 |
| 19 | 13 | 187/6 |
| 20 | 15 | 202/7 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Grant Stewart: Blue Square Thing · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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